It’s just a bad day to be paying attention.

Wildfires in California are, of course, because of teh gay. Wonder where these guys are when, for example, Hurricane Gustav hits at the same time as the Republican convention.

Lieberman’s everyone’s best chum again. It’s actually this chain of events that made me get irritated in the comments of my last post. The Democrat personality type tends to be more reasonable and accepting, but you have to have the fortitude to say when someone’s wrong. Lieberman should be kicked the hell off whatever he thinks is important, and I don’t know why they continue to coddle this buffoon. Well, I have a guess: it’s because the Senate Democrats think “play nice” is more important than “do what’s right”.

And I can’t even read Glenn Greenwald recently, it’s just too depressing.

I am pretty sure Obama is going to disappoint me. This is the best time we’ve had in decades to push for universal health care, but I’m pretty sure that’s not what’s going to happen. We’re just going to be further locked into depending on employers, which further deepens the leverage corporations have over their workers. And Lieberman saying that Obama’s support was crucial, that just further gives me an idea of how things are going to go. I was hoping that all the idiots saying “Obama must act from the center, not the left” would not have an effect on him, but given he’s probably inside the bubble now, it probably is.

Edit: though, on the other hand, here’s Greenwald today talking about the probable new attorney general, and there’s the news that Tom Daschle will be Secretary of Health and Human Services. And nice words from Rahm Emanuel on health care, though of course they’re just words. I dunno, tho, what Obama was saying during the debates — “we’ll make your premiums lower” — doesn’t sound like the scale of things Emanuel’s talking about. If it turns into the kind of thing where they said one thing during the election so as to not make waves, but actually have bigger plans — well, that’s kinda a typical politician underhanded move, but at least if it gets us an actual working health care system, I might not care so much.

So yeah, I’m fully with the argument that “he’s not even President yet, let’s see what happens.” But I’m not going to reflexively believe him just because he was elected, and I will admit I’m cynical on the activity of federal politicians. And the market forces involved, in the form of health care companies, drug companies, and the like — are massive and glacial.

Talk about brain damage causing selective perception:

John Hinderacker, arguably the most influential conservative blogger in the country …

Obama thinks he is a good talker, but he is often undisciplined when he speaks. He needs to understand that as President, his words will be scrutinized and will have impact whether he intends it or not. In this regard, President Bush is an excellent model; Obama should take a lesson from his example. Bush never gets sloppy when he is speaking publicly. He chooses his words with care and precision, which is why his style sometimes seems halting. In the eight years he has been President, it is remarkable how few gaffes or verbal blunders he has committed. If Obama doesn’t raise his standards, he will exceed Bush’s total before he is inaugurated.

At the feet of masters.

It’s times like this I wish I had a bigger platform, or I could talk to people in power directly in any meaningful fashion. If I could write an open letter to Reid, or Congressional Democrats in general, I’d say:

Cut Lieberman loose.

If you’re waiting to see the results of the outstanding Senate races, please do not bother. One, you Democrats don’t vote in a herd like Republicans, so if you get 59 seats, having Joe for 60 won’t really matter.

And two, it’s just not worth it. Your souls are not worth it. Our country is not worth it. Lieberman shat all over your party and now he needs to get what’s coming. Ah, that’s just my vindictive side talking, forget about the revenge angle. Basically, if he’s willing to question Obama’s loyalty to America while he’s running for President, what’s to stop him from doing it after he actually is?

And three, if the argument is “he frequently votes with us anyway”, then either he will follow his principles and continue to do so, or he has no principles, in which case it doesn’t matter if he’s in your caucus or not.

And just on a personal level, I cannot take that sanctimonious, self-satisfied face on my TV screen for the next four years. There’s quite a lot I would give to make him so irrelevant that he can’t get face time on CSPAN-3.

Cut Lieberman loose.

Dispatches from the Culture Wars: What a Difference Four Years Makes

Yeah.

Update: Also yeah.

Here’s a post from TPM talking about the org chart that they’ve posted on the presidential transition site. TPM calls out this block in particular:

There’s something about definitively seeing “The Constitution” at the top of all branches, and seeing the VP definitively inside the executive. I felt a small bit of relief, not a lot, just a little. Like a ship’s passenger on the deck after a violent storm at sea, still holding, white-knuckled, to the rails, for minutes after the storm has passed, and just getting the idea to convince the fingers that they might not have to hold so tightly anymore.

2004, Bush wins 284 electoral votes, 51% percent of the popular vote…the narrowist win for an incumbent since 1916, and it was called a mandate.

Wonder how much “mandate” will be mentioned in the days ahead. Mostly I see apologies for Events by conservatives…”oh, no Republican could have won in this environment,” somehow ignoring the realities of the last eight years, as if that’s had no effect. (And for that matter, logically they’re implicitly saying “we suck on the economy”, the biggest admission that Republicans are worse for the middle class’s wallet, which I think is funny there wasn’t anyone loudly underlining that.)

Now I expect a lot of “Well, you know. Events.” Nothing about a mandate. Less about the accomplishment and more about how the “tsunami” simply pushed Obama into the white house, as if against his will.

BE OVER BE OVER BE OVER Be OVER GOT OVER BE OVER GET IT OVER WITH BE OVER COME ON COME ON COME ON COME ON COME ON COME ONE BE OVER BE OVER BE OVER BE OER BE OVER BE OVER BE OVER BE OVER COME ON COME ON COMN ON COME ON COME ON COME ON C’MON C’MON C’MON C’MON HURRY UP HRRY UP HURRY UP HURRY UP HURRY UP 6 O CLOCK 6 O CLOCK 6 OCLOCK 6 OCLOCK COME ON COME ON COME ON COME ON COMMMME ONNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN

Virginia. Their results start coming in around 7pm ET; the 538 site isn’t responding now (gee, wonder why), but I remember him saying that Virginia will be your lead indicator. If Obama loses Virginia, it doesn’t mean he’s lost, but the path to victory is more winding. But if McCain loses it, he’s at a drastic disadvantage.

Incidentally, I just realized one reason why I like Obama on emotional level — I appreciate a storyteller. When McCain talks, I want him to stop talking. When Obama talks, I want to find out what happens.

Just a couple bits I’ve picked up in my reading…putting them here for myself, if no other reason, because I am forgetful and will forget the significant states otherwise. Should make following election night results even more edge-of-the-seat than they already are:

FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: What A McCain Win Looks Like…

Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.

(That’s out of 10,000 simulations.)

Talking Points Memo | Where to Watch

We just shot today’s episode of TPMtv, which is a run down of the big senate races. This won’t surprise anyone who’s closely watching the senate races. But if you’ve only been watching the presidential race, it’s all going to come down to three southern state races, all of which share a strong basic profile — Kentucky, with incumbent Mitch McConnell, Georgia with incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Mississippi, with appointed incumbent Roger Wicker.

None of the three Dems in these races has yet to get a public poll putting them in the lead. But each is very close, within a few points. And the incumbent, in each case, is under 50%. All of which is to say that each of these incumbents is in real trouble, though each probably has a thin advantage going into election day.

To get to 60, the Dems need to bag one of these three seats. Even with that, they’d need to pull out the Minnesota race, which looks promising but is still touch and go, and win all the ones where they’re favored but it’s still close. But when you’re watching on election night, keep an eye on those three races. They’ll be the tell.