Things to watch for
Just a couple bits I’ve picked up in my reading…putting them here for myself, if no other reason, because I am forgetful and will forget the significant states otherwise. Should make following election night results even more edge-of-the-seat than they already are:
FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right: What A McCain Win Looks Like…
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be “must-wins” for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it’s pretty much over.
(That’s out of 10,000 simulations.)
Talking Points Memo | Where to Watch
We just shot today’s episode of TPMtv, which is a run down of the big senate races. This won’t surprise anyone who’s closely watching the senate races. But if you’ve only been watching the presidential race, it’s all going to come down to three southern state races, all of which share a strong basic profile — Kentucky, with incumbent Mitch McConnell, Georgia with incumbent Saxby Chambliss and Mississippi, with appointed incumbent Roger Wicker.
None of the three Dems in these races has yet to get a public poll putting them in the lead. But each is very close, within a few points. And the incumbent, in each case, is under 50%. All of which is to say that each of these incumbents is in real trouble, though each probably has a thin advantage going into election day.
To get to 60, the Dems need to bag one of these three seats. Even with that, they’d need to pull out the Minnesota race, which looks promising but is still touch and go, and win all the ones where they’re favored but it’s still close. But when you’re watching on election night, keep an eye on those three races. They’ll be the tell.
November 4th, 2008 08:31
God help us all today.
November 4th, 2008 10:35
Nearer, my God, to thee, nearer to thee!
E’en though it be a cross that raiseth me,
still all my song shall be,
nearer, my God, to thee,
nearer, my God, to thee, nearer to thee…
November 4th, 2008 11:19
If God bring you to it, He will bring you through it.
In happy moments, praise God.
In difficult moments, seek God.
In painful moments, trust God.
Every moment, thank God.
That is how I will get through the next four years and the next four after that and so on. It is how I have gotten through the last five years with something so much more important than anything being decided today that it can never be compared as my wife has survived and continues to survive ovarian cancer AND a brain tumor.
Peace to all of you who have supported Senator Obama and I hope that he fulfills the promises he has made. If he wins, I will support him as my president and I look forward to a very peaceful period in our history.
Take care and God bless you all.
Mike G>
November 4th, 2008 13:20
Yes, let’s all ask an imaginary friend to help us get through our everyday lives, instead of taking personal repsonsibility and motivate ourselves.
November 4th, 2008 13:32
Hey, if imaginary friends are all you have, I say run with it.
November 4th, 2008 14:52
Heh. I don’t even believe in God, per se. It’s more of a cultural thing to ask the ‘resident deity’ to make sure we all don’t fucking die in the next decade.
Anyone else voting Vigoda/Linden today?